201109 The South China Sea is the Future of Couflict (R. Kaplan)

A latest article on South China Sea conflict published in 2011 Sep-Oct issue of Foreign Policy, R. Kaplan argues:

The struggle for primacy in the Western Pacific will not necessarily involve combat; much of what takes place will happen quietly and over the horizon in blank sea space, at a glacial tempo befitting the slow, steady accommodation to superior economic and military power that states have made throughout history. War is far from inevitable even if competition is a given. And if China and the United States manage the coming handoff successfully, Asia, and the world, will be a more secure, prosperous place. What could be more moral than that? Remember: It is realism in the service of the national interest -- whose goal is the avoidance of war -- that has saved lives over the span of history far more than humanitarian interventionism.

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201107 Q&A: South China Sea dispute

A brief introduction updated by BBC News, in 19 July 2011. In the article, it illustrate the basic questions about the dispute of South China Sea. Including what is the argument about? Who claims what? Why are so many countries so keen? How much trouble does the dispute cause? Is anyone trying to resolve the row?

The Paracels and the Spratlys may have vast reserves of natural resources around them. There has been little detailed exploration of the area, so estimates are largely extrapolated from the mineral wealth of neighbouring areas. 

Chinese officials have given the most optimistic estimates of resource wealth in the area. According to figures quoted by the US Energy Information Administration, one Chinese estimate puts possible oil reserves as high as 213 billion barrels - 10 times the proven reserves of the US. But American scientists have estimated the amount of oil at 28 billion barrels.According to the EIA, the real wealth of the area may well be natural gas reserves. Estimates say the area holds about 900 trillion cubic ft (25 trillion cubic m) - the same as the proven reserves of Qatar. 

The area is also one of the region's main shipping lanes, and is home to a fishing ground that supplies the livelihoods of thousands of people.

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201106 South China Sea crisis a chance for ASEAN to prove its worth

Experts and officials agree that ASEAN plays a key role in diffusing the tension and resolving the conflict.  If the ASEAN “wants to be at the center of its security universe, then it must be willing to confront difficult security situations such as the overlapping claims in the South China Sea,” says Mohd Nizam Basiron of the Maritime Institute of Malaysia.

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201106 More Trouble in the South China Sea

A article on The National Interest published in 2011 June-14, Ted Galen Carpenter discusses:

Washington faces a dilemma with the South China Sea controversy. The United States is the quintessential maritime trading state and, by far, the world’s leading naval military power. U.S. leaders have always been vigilant to challenge any actual or potential disruption of navigation rights in international waters. That position goes back to the first decades of the Republic, epitomized by the U.S. naval and marine expedition against the so-called Barbary pirates during Thomas Jefferson’s administration.

On the other hand, Washington places a high priority on maintaining good relations with China—relations that are already somewhat strained because of other issues. U.S. officials face a difficult choice. To prevent further damage to the bilateral relationship, they can mute their opposition to Beijing’s rather transparent power play in the South China Sea—even though that would weaken America’s traditional emphasis on unimpeded maritime rights. Or they can take a strong position against China’s territorial claims, even though that stance may cause the bilateral relationship to fray further. But a choice has to be made, because the South China Sea problem is not going to go away.

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201106 China Accuses Vietnam in South China Sea Row

In June, BBC News updated the current dynamics of South China Sea, mentioned,

Beijing said Vietnam had endangered Chinese sailors' lives and warned it to stop "all invasive activities".It follows an accusation by Vietnam that a Chinese fishing boat rammed cables from an oil exploration vessel inside its exclusive economic zone.

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201104 Effects of China’s Sovereignty Claims in the South China Sea

A paper wrote by  Richard L. Bosworth.

The US ability to project power is a major factor ensuring freedom of movement and security into the Western Pacific region. In the decade following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US capability to project power has been effectively unchallenged. This period of operating with relative impunity is rapidly coming to an end with the rise of a modern Chinese military power that will soon become a ―peer competitor.‖ China has become more aggressive in its claims of ―indisputable sovereignty‖ over territories in the SCS and appears intent on trying to exercise control over the zone by denying the US access. Freedom of movement through the South China Sea is vital to facilitating the US global posture. China‘s renewed assertiveness and rapid military transformation have increased the potential for those interests to be undermined. If the US allows these claims, of ―indisputable sovereignty‖ over the entire South China Sea, to go unchecked or unchallenged the US could lose its ability to project power into the region. USCDRPACOM finds itself at a cross-road, either take a more proactive approach to deter China‘s aggressive actions and to reassure our allies and partners of our commitment to the region or risk the loss of military access to areas vital to its security.

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